Prediction #120
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In World Affairs, MonkeyMagic ruminates...
Will California legalize marijuana with bill AB 390?
I forecast it 65% likely. If anyone can, California can...
SF Weekly broke a story this week that Assemblyman Tom Ammiano will announce legislation to legalise pot in California. This has understandably spawned massive debate on the pros and cons of such legalisation.
In essence, bill AB 390 would, "Remove all penalties under California law for the cultivation, transportation, sale, purchase, possession, and use of marijuana, natural THC and paraphernalia by persons over the age of 21," "prohibit local and state law enforcement officials from enforcing federal marijuana laws". More here.
The move would enable regulation of prices and importantly taxation.
You can read the full text of the bill from this Digg story.
The move has far reaching political and economic implications not just for California, but for other countries battling the debate - particularly given recent reports that marijuana can be linked to testicular cancer (for example). In the UK cannabis was raised in classification from a class C to class b drug. How can too countries be moving in such different directions on this issue?
So what do you think? Will California legalise marijuana over the next 2 years?
What do you think? Share your opinion and make a prediction!
Use the slider your make your forecast for this prediction and hit the 'Forecast it!' button.
Forecast
history (rollover individual forecasts to see details)
Worldwide forecast activity
35 current forecasts
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JohnBee forecast it as 50% likely, about 1 month ago
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FollowTheBuck forecast it as 100% likely, about 1 month ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
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Access forecast it as 90% likely, about 1 month ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
The worse the economy, the more likely.
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HNhereandnow forecast it as 90% likely, about 1 month ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie | My Twitter page
the amazing crop.
this will be a movement to start new companies that will sell chipper clothing among other kind of bussines.
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HarvestMoon forecast it as 90% likely, about 1 month ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
Legalize it!
It's time to end prohabition
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DavidLashchuk forecast it as 33% likely, 2 months ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
The Fed just says NO!
Although the popular vote may demand it, the federal gov. will not allow its passage to happen, even to the extent of witholding federal monies that the state currently needs to survive.
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humptidumpti forecast it as 84% likely, 2 months ago
Success rate: 4% | Status: Newbie
It's about the tax
With all of the cities in most counties trying to place moratoriums on medical marijuana dispensaries, I do not believe law enforcement wants it, but believe it will become legal as a means of creating substantial income for the State.
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amild73 forecast it as 36% likely, 5 months ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
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Dr33mW33v3r forecast it as 50% likely, 5 months ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
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Hilikus forecast it as 75% likely, 6 months ago
Success rate: 16% | Status: Visionary
Sure, why not?
In two years politicians will be making big stunts to land some election votes. Plus you've all seen Arnold smoking a joint in "Pumping Iron."
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HASHKAAN forecast it as 50% likely, 6 months ago
Success rate: 0% | Status: Newbie
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matteo forecast it as 15% likely, 8 months ago
Success rate: 20% | Status: Oracle
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kayla8 forecast it as 65% likely, 9 months ago
Success rate: 11% | Status: Wonder Child
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Fusedhead forecast it as 20% likely, 9 months ago
Success rate: 25% | Status: Chump
Wishful Thinking
Even if it passed the DEA and Feds would be all over the shops and closeing them down.
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okamalo forecast it as 11% likely, 9 months ago
Success rate: 25% | Status: Grasshopper
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rvotel forecast it as 5% likely, 9 months ago
Success rate: 23% | Status: Chump
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The group forecast
66.0%
likelihood
from
35
forecasts
The outcome of this prediction is not yet known
- Based on 35 forecasts
- Bonus for group success: 350 Future Minutes
- Ends: 24 Feb 2011, 19:00 PM (GMT +00:00)
- Time left: 11 months
- Added: about 1 year ago
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The Golden State needs money now and a way to supplement its cash flow on a regular basis and provide jobs for the un- and underemployed. What was one of the ways that the good ol' U.S. of A. dug itself out of the great depression in the 30s? It got off it's moral high horse and ended prohibition, which created thousands of jobs in breweries and distilleries and contributed to the IRS' tax coffers. Alchohol has at least as many health risks associated with it as does wacky weed, but public opinion, and the need for an expedient solution to economic uncertainties will out-weigh health concerns. And Obama has already instructed the feds to follow the lead of individual states when it comes to enforcing federal marijuana laws.